AUDUSD - 2-Oct-2013

The price has pulled back and reversed at 38% of recent rally. The price is looking good to reach 127% extension of recent rally and 50% retracement of decline from April high. If this is hit, it could, very well, form ABCD pattern. Watch out for coming days

Daily Chart

EURUSD - 10/9/2013

The price appears to be bullish, however, the current price is to far way to afford the stop-loss at yesterday's low. You will need to wait for considerable pullback to make an entry into the trade.

Daily chart

USDJPY - Date 28-7-2013

One way to easily identify a market increasing in volatility is 5 day ATR > 20 day ATR. USDJPY is increasing in volatility.

 FOREXAnalysis: The USDJPY traded into the bottom of 3 week consolidation this week. Volatility is increasing but remains relatively low. Strength from the current level would present an opportunity to participate on the short side for a larger decline. Thursday’s late day spike low is resistance along with Friday’s post Tokyo consolidation at 98.80/90. Also, watch the underside of the broken channel (in red) for resistance.

FOREX Trading Strategy: Looking for a high into 98.80/90. 97.50 and 96.40 are estimated supports with 95.40 as ultimately the strongest support and a final target. 

 

4Hour

USDJPY - Date: 1/7/2013

USDJPY - Date: 1/7/2013

The weekly chart paints a very bullish bias due to following factors.
1. Strong uptrend
2. Correction ended at
        a.  T1 (previous resistance),
        b. 38% retracement
        c. Bullish reversal candlestick pattern

To trade,  targets are as follows.
Target 1 : 103  - T3
Target 2 : 110 - T4

USDJPY Weekly chart

Digging deeper into 4hr chart, the price has broken out of consolidation and resumed the move to the upside.

USDJPY 4hr chart

GBPUSD - Analysis

The price has broken heavy daily support. This looks to be a heavy fall. However, we cannot go short at current level. I will wait the price bounces back to previous support at 1.5330 and shows reversal at that level on daily chart.

GBPUSD Daily chart

EURUSD Analysis

The daily trend has, seems to be, resumed down trend (daily chart). The price might be heading back towards 1.2700.

EURUSD Daily Chart

I will look to go short cautiously at 1.3050 against 1.2175.

EURUSD 1hr Chart

EURUSD - Analysis

Date: 6 Jan 2013

FOREX Observation: The EURUSD completed an inverse head and shoulders pattern in early December that had been forming (bottom of left shoulder) since the second week of 2012. Here we are exactly one year later and it is possible that the first big move of 2013 is higher as per the completed pattern. Price is testing the neckline as support now but the classical pattern is considered valid as long as price is above the breakout bar low of 12875. Objectives to think about include where the rally from the 2011 low would consist of 2 equal waves, at 13787 and the traditional h&s objective of about 14260.

FOREX Trading Implication: Focus for now is on initiating a core long. I wrote last night that I was looking to go long on an NFP washout in the mid-12900s. We dipped slightly under 13000 before drifting higher to end the day though. A slight new low can’t be ruled out, especially considering the 3 wave advance from today’s low. A Monday low would be most desirable when one considers weekly seasonality. Speaking of seasonality, failure to put in a low by Tuesday would leave the EURUSD vulnerable on a monthly seasonality basis (high is first day of the month). Bottom line; I’m looking to buy a drop below Friday’s low, probably between 12950/85 on Monday.

EU Weekly chart

EU Daily chart

AUDCAD - Analysis

Date: 27/11/2012

Bias: Bearish

Looking at the daily chart, the price has hit resistance T1 and bounced. This made me turn bearish.
The prices retraced 68% (on 1hr chart) and bounced. We go short at current level (1.0389) against stop loss 1.0480 and first target at recent low or 1.0260 (T3 on daily chart). We will move the stoploss to break-even once the price hits 1.0290 (T2 on 4hr chart)

Daily Chart

4hr Chart

1hr Chart

AUDNZD - Analysis

Date: 27/11/2012

Bias: Bullish

The daily price has tested resistance turned support 1.2696(T1 & T4) and showing bounce at it. The first resistance might be 1.2791 (68%) and if it breaks through, next resistance comes at 1.2881(T3).

We should totake shot at long against 1.2660 (T9) and see how it turns out

Daily Chart

4hr Chart

EURGBP - Analysis

Date: 27/11/2012

Bias: Bearish

The longer term trend appears to be bearish (Daily Chart 1). The trend had retraced and broke the rising trendline T1. This T1 should and would prove to be resistance. The daily price rose to T1 and showing reversal candlestick pattern at T1 (Daily Chart 2). And also we have potential head and shoulder pattern.

We will go short at 0.8070 against 0.8120 as stop-loss and first target would be 0.7980

Daily Chart 1

Daily Chart 2

4hr Chart

EURAUD - Analysis

Date: 27/11/2012

Bias: Bullish

We are in uptrend and coming off from a 50% retracement. I will look to go long

Daily chart

There is not much on four hour chart at the moment.

4hr Chart

However, we see a flag/rectangle on 1hr chart. I will go long at the bottom of the range with expectation towards break higher. And When the break of 1.2420/30occurs, I will take one more long position with stoploss below lower end of the range.

1hr chart

Position 1:
Long @ 1.2390 -> OPEN
SL: 1.2350
Target: Open:

Position 2: PENDING
Long @ at 1.2420 after break of 1.2430
SL: 1.2370
Target: Open

AUDCHF - Analysis

Date: 26/11/2012

The price has reversed from 50% retracement on daily chart and I hope and assume the downtrend has resumed. I will like to go short at appropriate level.

Chart 1 - Daily chart

Looking at 4hr chart, both the defense of support trendlines is broken. This is in confirmation with daily analysis and direction. We will look to go short at appropriate level.

Chart 2 - 4hr chart

Bias: Short

Entry: Around 0.9750
Stop loss : 0.9825
Target : <Open>
===============================================================
Update: 26/11/2012
Trade - 1
Entry: When short at 0.9712 with RSI hovering at around 60
Stop loss : 0.9830
Target : <Open>
===============================================================
Update - 30/11/2012

The plan layed out  on 26/11/2012 has worked to pip. The price has hit the defined level precisely at 0.9750 before resuming falling. See Chart 3. The RSI on 4 hr chart has entered into oversold level. We will refrain from entering into another trade until this pressure is either released or neutralized.

Chart 3 - 4 hr

NZDUSD - Analysis

Date - 25/11/2012

The price is approaching the resistance on daily chart. We will stay aside to decide bais

Bias - Flat

AUSUSD - Analysis

Date: 25 Nov 2012

We are in a triangle range and price is approaching daily upper resistance. We would stay aside for now to determine the bias

Bias: Flat

EURUSD - Analysis

Date - 25 Nov 2012


The price had reversed from 38% retracement. The daily price has approached the resistance trendline (T1). We would like to stay aside for now to decide the bias

Bias:Flat

Daily Analysis - EURUSD 12/10/2012

As we were waiting for confirmation of break or reversal yesterday, it looks like we have reversal on daily chart. The price could reach to 1.3000.  The pivot levels are highlighted on hourly chart. We would like to go long at 1.2900/10 with target towards 1.3000 and stop loss 1.2820

Daily Chart

1 hr chart

Daily Analysis - EURUSD 10/10/2012

The price is nearer to recent trendline support (1.2830)on daily chart. We might as well have a channel on 4hr chart and we are coming to the lower end of the channel.

Daily Chart

4hr chart

If we break 1.2830, the price could reach 1.2740. On the other hand, if it rebounds, it could head towards 1.3000 again.

We need to wait for either break or rebound on 4 hour chart to take bias on the trade

4hr chart

Daily Analysis: AUDUSD - 10/10/2012

The AUDUSD has rebounded after gapping lower to open the week. Focus throughout October is lower towards 9968/80 (6/25 low and 61.8% retracement of rally from 9580) and 9900 (5/29 high) but respect potential for a more pronounced bounce into 10274 (10/5 high) or 10330 (38.2% retracement and former support). Weakness below the Monday low would warrant a breakout strategy towards the mentioned levels against the intervening high for the week (so far that high is 10219).

Daily Chart

Daily Analysis: GBP/USD - 10/10/2012

The GBPUSD drop below 16066 opens up the door for a test of 15900 (38.2% retracement of rally from 15233 is at 15897, 8/23 high is at 15912), which would be expected to generate a market response. The 100% extension of the decline from the top comes in at 15970 and warrants consideration as a potential pivot as well. From a trading standpoint, today’s clean break offers a chance to be bearish on strength against 16217. 16070-16100 is resistance.

GPBUSD Daily Chart

We would like to look out for opportunities to go short at 1.6070 with target at 1.5900 and stop loss at 1.5220

19/3/2012

http://www.dailyfx.com/forex/technical/article/fx_technical_weekly/2012/03/16/US_Dollar_is_Vulnerable_after_Sharp_Weekly_Reversal.html