Thursday, 12 January 2012

Using Pattern Probability to Trade the trend

90% traders will loose money in the market.

Most traders loose because of following reasons
  1. Lack of discipline
  2. Lack of money management skills
  3. Lack of consistency
It takes years to be successful with trading. Consistency is most important.


  1. We look for long term, medium term and short term trend in the same direction even before consider a trade.
  2. Look for chart patter for entry
  3. Once entered, we work out 2 exist points,  price based and time based
  4. And Money management system.


Pattern #1 - Symmetrical Triangle
We place the trade when the price breaks out of the triangle and place the stop loss at the apex of the triangle

Pattern #2 - Ascending Triangle.
The ascending triangle found in uptrend is more powerful than the one found in downtrend.
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Pattern #3 - Head and Shoulder Pattern
This can be seen as continuation pattern rather than reversal pattern.
Look for failure of the neckline and look to go long above the right shoulder, placing the stoploss between the top of the right shoulder and neckline,

Above 3 patterns have the highest probability out of 9 patterns

Pattern #4 - Rectangle
This can be traded both in uptrend and downtrend. It has more success probability in uptrend.
Take the trade when the price breaks out of it and place stop midway into it.
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Probability patterns to be traded in downtrend.
Pattern #5- Minor tops
Prerequisite is that we should be in a major downtrend. We will look for minor rally in the context of downtrend and look for patterns such as double tops, head and shoulder tops and a descending triangle.
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Pattern #6 - Falling wedge

Pattern #7 - Raising wedge.

Break even rules

  1. Go to break-even when the price goes to twice the risk. It could occur in intraday as well.
  2. 4 day rule - It is based on time. It the target is not reached within the timeframe, close the trade with available profit.

Trailing stops:
Move the stop along with the trendline. If the price move more than the trendline, wait for the price to make swing high/low after the recent sharp movement and then move the stop loss to recent swing high/low
Of the two, the one takes the precedence is the one that locks on maximum profit.

Use re-entry technique if you are stopped out on the trade. Reenter the market at another breakout in the same setup with redrawn pattern.










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